• العربية
  • 简体中文
  • English
  • Français
  • Русский
  • Español

You are here

Last week, I had the opportunity to provide some predictions for 2014 to the Telecom Council of Silicon Valley. I have mixed feelings about predicting the future when it comes to the Internet – the Internet has been such a change-maker that I've been known to say, "a predictable Internet is a dead Internet."

That said, we've been watching (and sharing) the data and trends in IPv6 uptake since World IPv6 Launch almost two years ago, so I feel comfortable putting a stake in the ground and proposing:

Prediction: IPv6 will be a mainstream technology by the end of 2014

  • 10% of all global Internet traffic to Google, Facebook, and Yahoo! will use IPv6
  • IPv6 will have additional large commercial rollouts on every continent
  • All major United States network operators will offer IPv6 on a commercial basis to end users

The number (10%) is pretty easy to sketch from Google's own IPv6 measurements. The amount of IPv6 traffic hitting Googledoubled from 1% to 2% between September 2012 and September 2013. In the 4.5 months since, it's surpassed 2.75%. The rate of growth is increasing.

So, is 10% traffic toward major content providers enough of a leg to stand on in the claim that IPv6 will be mainstream? I think so, because it's an important metric for network operators. They watch where their network traffic goes, and when the top five websites (as measured by Alexa) can take their traffic over IPv6, they pay attention. The reason the Google graph is showing that sharpened curve is because more networks around the globe are lighting up IPv6. The top networks (as shown on the World IPv6 Launch measurements page) are spread across the globe – US, Europe, Asia.

Now that IPv6 is becoming a mainstream Internet technology, it's time to wake up and get IPv6! Are you connected to the entire Internet? (Our Deploy360 Programme can help you get started.)

Leslie’s slides from the meeting are also available on SlideShare.

Comments

If the number is 2.75% now and it's doubling every year, how can it be 10% by the end of 2014? 5% maybe...

I note from Google traffic statistic that there is a traffic increase by 25 % in every 2 months. Based on this exponential projection, by end 2014, the growth as compared with today is 1.25^6 equals to 3.81 times. Now that we have 2.75 % Internet traffic riding on IPv6, it should be possible to reach 10 % (2.75 % x 3.84 = 10.49 %) by end 2014. Thanks.
Add new comment